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Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks - diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

Multi-criteria decision analysis in Bayesian networks - diagnosing ecosystem service trade-offs in a hydropower regulated river

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Tidsskriftspublikasjon
Sammendrag
The paper demonstrates the use of Bayesian networks in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of environmental design alternatives for environmental flows (eflows) and physical habitat remediation measures in the Mandalselva River in Norway. We demonstrate how MCDA using multi-attribute value functions can be implemented in a Bayesian network with decision and utility nodes. An object-oriented Bayesian network is used to integrate impacts computed in quantitative sub-models of hydropower revenues and Atlantic salmon smolt production and qualitative judgement models of mesohabitat fishability and riverscape aesthetics. We show how conditional probability tables are useful for modelling uncertainty in value scaling functions, and variance in criteria weights due to different stakeholder preferences. While the paper demonstrates the technical feasibility of MCDA in a BN, we also discuss the challenges
Oppdragsgiver
  • Norges forskningsråd / 215934
Språk
Engelsk
Forfatter(e)
  • Barton David Nicholas
  • Sundt Håkon
  • Adeva Bustos Ana
  • Fjeldstad Hans-Petter
  • Hedger Richard David
  • Forseth Torbjørn
  • Köhler Berit
  • Aas Øystein
  • Alfredsen Knut
  • Madsen Anders L.
Institusjon(er)
  • Norsk institutt for naturforskning
  • SINTEF Energi AS / Energisystemer
  • Norsk institutt for naturforskning
  • Norsk institutt for naturforskning
  • Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet
  • Danmark
  • Aalborg Universitet
År
2019
Publisert i
Environmental Modelling & Software
ISSN
1364-8152
Årgang
124