Sammendrag
A prototype ePlan-model, focusing on the Norwegian building stock, has been implemented in the software tool LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System). The model is based on a historical analysis of energy consumption in buildings (E) and historical data on activity (A) defined as useful floor area for the different building categories. The historical intensity data is partly deduced from these numbers, partly based on previous research and partly on data from available sources such as the Enova Building Network. A major challenge has been to assure consistency when using different data sources and other sources of information, and some compromises have been made in order to obtain series of data with the same format to be used harmonically in the model.The model has been demonstrated through development of four scenarios compared with a base scenario. One scenario focuses on substitution of electricity with thermal carriers. The results show that throughout a 30 year period, approximately 14 TWh of electric heating can potentially be replaced by thermal carriers compared to the base scenario although this would at the same time imply approximately 20 TWh increase in the use of thermal carriers. The remaining three scenarios focus on energy conservation measures with electricity as the main energy carrier. It is estimated that the application of moderate conservation measures both for new and renovated buildings, combined with the application of heat pumps, can reduce the use of electric energy with approximately 7 TWh and the use of thermal energy with approximately 10 TWh compared to the base scenario. The results also show that the potential for reducing energy consumption is higher for renovation activities than in new construction.