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eaSi-system - Framework for systematic SDG impacts assessment

Uncertainty analysis

When performing a macroeconomic analysis, we often want robustness.   In view of this, we should to consider several possibilities for that which is unknown. For example, future demands are never completely certain, or some industrial data might be imprecise. We address this by using scenarios. 

  • Scenarios address uncertainty, and can be modelled in different ways, depending on the nature of the unknown. 
  • We have developed ways to handle uncertainty in different parts of the macroeconomic system, from wide-encompassing pathways to more quantitative changes using statistical expertise. 
  • A comprehensive uncertainty assessment in our analyses can suggests areas where the cost-benefit of reducing or controlling uncertainty is the largest.  
  • We can also get information for risk-assessment on relevant parameters, gaining insight on how likely are these to fall below unacceptable levels, for example. 
  • We carefully assess when the additional complexity of the uncertainty analysis benefits a case study on a case-by case basis.