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Power market modelling

The power market’s most important task is to maintain a constant balance between the supply and demand of electricity. At SINTEF, we have cutting-edge expertise in modelling and analysing power markets in the Nordic region, and investigating how these markets interact with the larger European market system. The models we develop include solutions to ensure optimal power supply, as well as balancing and system services that are crucial for a reliable power system.


Participating in multiple power markets increases the value of hydropower

The Nordic power market is closely integrated with the larger European market via transmission interconnectors. This presents increased market opportunities for Norwegian hydropower producers. For example, for a number of years, we have sold hydropower to Denmark when they have insufficient wind power, and bought hydropower back when they have a surplus power production. Not only does this maintain the power balance in Denmark, but it also enables us to store Norwegian hydropower in reservoirs until we really need it.

Traditionally, Norwegian power producers have focused on the day-ahead spot market. However, as water can be stored until it is needed (as opposed to sunshine and gusts of wind), hydropower can also actively participate in balancing markets. The flexibility of hydropower means it can also be supplied to different system services that are necessary for the robust and secure operation of the power system.

Participation in multiple markets significantly increases the value of Norwegian hydropower. Furthermore, as solar and wind power continue to develop in both Norway and Europe, the need for balancing power and system services will also increase. By taking advantage of good models and decision support tools, hydropower producers can optimise their sales of available power to different markets and products. This ensures that hydropower resources are used in the most efficient way, which creates value for Norwegian industry players and an even, low price level for electricity.    

Market models for hydropower

At SINTEF, we have cutting-edge expertise in modelling and optimization of hydropower production scheduling. We have developed multiple scheduling models that are well-suited for different types of analyses and decision support. These models range from long-term models that cover the entire power system and to reservoir management over seasons and years.

The models have a long history of extensive use in the Nordic market, and are continuously being developed to adapt to a future power system with a larger proportion of intermittent renewable power such as solar and wind, as well as hydropower. The models are based on physical and technical descriptions of the production system, transmission grid and power consumption.

If you are interested in learning more about the models, we recommend the following pages:

We work with the following topics:

  • Fundamental market modellling
  • Principles of market coupling
  • Electricity certificate markets
  • Operational planning of hydropower production involving participation in multiple markets

Our typical projects include:

  • Developing research-based power market models
  • Performing quantitative analyses of power systems
  • Analysing the interaction between the power system and other energy sources and carriers, such as hydrogen and district heating

Who do we do this for?

  • Hydropower producers
  • Power system operators
  • Regulators
  • Public sector agencies

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Models for Aggregation and Disaggregation - MAD

The players in the Nordic power market, i.e. producers, transmission system operators and regulators use computer models to plan for the best possible utilization of the system and energy resources. Calculation of the operation strategy for hydro storages is the most important and complicating factor in these computations. Emptying the reservoirs too soon may result in curtailment of electricity an to cautious operation may result in unnecessary spillage is a loss to the society.

The stochastic short-term model SHARM

The goal of the "Validation of the SHARM model" project is to facilitate implementation of the SHARM (Short-term Hydropower Application with Risk Modelling) model in the hydropower industry.