The complexity and uncertainties of the power system are increasing, due to integration of distributed renewable power generation, the introduction of new technologies (smartgrids), more extreme weather and stronger integration between the Nordic and European power systems. This development imposes risks and vulnerabilities in the power system needing to be dealt with. In particular, extraordinary events are of special interest as they imply substantial consequences to society. The mechanisms behind these events are not well understood today, and there is a need to increase the ability to identify, understand and assess extraordinary events.
By building on today's best methods and theories, methods and tools for analysing extraordinary events in power systems will be developed. The main challenges to be addressed are the identification of causes and underlying mechanisms, quantification of the consequences and handling uncertainties. The use of case studies of the Nordic power transmission system will ensure the applicability of methods.
The project results will provide decision support to make a best possible trade-off between security of supply and societal costs in planning and operation of the Nordic power system. The project will build new competence for analysis of extraordinary events, and the collaboration with transmission system operators and authorities ensures that the developed methodologies will increase situational awareness as well as aid for deciding on remedial actions and preparedness plans for the power system. Improved understanding of the risks associated with extraordinary events will also be of great value for electric utilities, households and industry in general, as modern society is heavily dependent on a reliable electric supply.
Øystein Rognes Solheim; Gerd Kjølle; Thomas Trötscher:
Wind Dependent Failure Rates for Overhead Transmission Lines Using Reanalysis Data and a Bayesian Updating Scheme.
2016 International conference on Probabilistic methods applied to power systems (PMAPS), Beijing, IEEE.