Driving forces and scenarios for future distribution grids

The objective of this subtopic is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packages in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. This research area will also study the driving forces for the future electricity distribution system of 2030-2040. This will contribute to integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.

To better understand the development of the future electricity grid, a set of driving forces for system innovation for the Norwegian distribution grid have been identified and structured [1], [2]. The driving forces identified are systematized in three different categories: Megatrends, such as climate change or digitalization; external driving forces, such as politics or societal trends and values; and grid related driving forces, such as flexibility, cyber security, or the emergence of distributed generation.

The work on driving forces inspired a set of mini-scenarios, initially developed in 2017 [3]. A mini scenario can be a possible event, development or action which has an impact on the development of the distribution grid. The initial set of mini scenarios were increased and refined [4]–[6], and collected in a mini-scenario repository in 2020 [7].

Scenarios can help create an understanding of what the future may be like and serve as a foundation for transition strategies. The work with mini-scenarios has informed work with four main scenarios for the distribution grid in 2030-2040, formed by variation along the axes of level of grid digitalization, and customer participation [8]–[10]. The resulting main scenarios is business as usual, the automated grid, the distribution grid as back-up, and the flexible and intelligent grid.

The work on driving forces and scenarios for future distribution grids contributed with structure, clarity, and a basis for research in other CINELDI work packages and will be continuously developed throughout the duration of the FME.

References:
[1]          T. S. Hermansen, G. H. Kjølle, H. Vefsnmo, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation,” SINTEF Energy Research, CINELDI Report 01:2019, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://sintef.brage.unit.no/sintef-xmlui/handle/11250/2681947
[2]          T. S. Hermansen, H. Vefsnmo, G. Kjølle, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation - results from a foresight process,” Jun. 2019, doi: 10.34890/50.
[3]          H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av miniscenarier - Workshop i Trondheim 30. august 2017,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Nov. 2017.
[4]          H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av flere miniscenarier - Workshop med task-ledere og WP-ledere i Trondheim 6. februar 2018,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2018.
[5]          H. Sæle, “Evaluering av miniscenarier for Fleksible ressurser,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2019.
[6]          A. Morch, “Definition of mini-scenarios relevant for TSO-DSO interaction,” CINELDI Report, Aug. 2019.
[7]          CINELDI, “Leserveiledning for bruk av ‘repository’ med miniscenarier og drivkrefter, versjon 2.0,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.sintef.no/globalassets/project/cineldi/cineldi-miniscenarier-til-web_07102020.pdf
[8]          H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av scenarier - Workshop i Trondheim 3. mai 2018,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2018.
[9]          Hanne Vefsnmo, Tonje S. Hermansen, Gerd Kjølle, and Kjell Sand, “Scenarier for fremtidens elektriske distribusjonsnett anno 2030-2040,” CINELDI / SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, CINELDI report 01:2018. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2681944
[10]        G. Kjølle, K. Sand, and E. Gramme, “Scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid,” in CIRED 2021 - The 26th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, , Online Conference, 2021, pp. 3259–3263. doi: 10.1049/icp.2021.1527.

Smart grid scenarios and transition strategies (WP6)

Results:

 

Smart grid scenarios and transition strategy
CINELDI's Knowledge base