Driving forces and scenarios for future distribution grids
The objective of this subtopic is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packages in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. This research area will also study the driving forces for the future electricity distribution system of 2030-2040. This will contribute to integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.
To better understand the development of the future electricity grid, a set of driving forces for system innovation for the Norwegian distribution grid have been identified and structured , . The driving forces identified are systematized in three different categories: Megatrends, such as climate change or digitalization; external driving forces, such as politics or societal trends and values; and grid related driving forces, such as flexibility, cyber security, or the emergence of distributed generation.
The work on driving forces inspired a set of mini-scenarios, initially developed in 2017 . A mini scenario can be a possible event, development or action which has an impact on the development of the distribution grid. The initial set of mini scenarios were increased and refined –, and collected in a mini-scenario repository in 2020 .
Scenarios can help create an understanding of what the future may be like and serve as a foundation for transition strategies. The work with mini-scenarios has informed work with four main scenarios for the distribution grid in 2030-2040, formed by variation along the axes of level of grid digitalization, and customer participation –. The resulting main scenarios is business as usual, the automated grid, the distribution grid as back-up, and the flexible and intelligent grid.
The work on driving forces and scenarios for future distribution grids contributed with structure, clarity, and a basis for research in other CINELDI work packages and will be continuously developed throughout the duration of the FME.
 T. S. Hermansen, G. H. Kjølle, H. Vefsnmo, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation,” SINTEF Energy Research, CINELDI Report 01:2019, 2019. [Online]. Available: https://sintef.brage.unit.no/sintef-xmlui/handle/11250/2681947
 T. S. Hermansen, H. Vefsnmo, G. Kjølle, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation - results from a foresight process,” Jun. 2019, doi: 10.34890/50.
 H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av miniscenarier - Workshop i Trondheim 30. august 2017,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Nov. 2017.
 H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av flere miniscenarier - Workshop med task-ledere og WP-ledere i Trondheim 6. februar 2018,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2018.
 H. Sæle, “Evaluering av miniscenarier for Fleksible ressurser,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2019.
 A. Morch, “Definition of mini-scenarios relevant for TSO-DSO interaction,” CINELDI Report, Aug. 2019.
 CINELDI, “Leserveiledning for bruk av ‘repository’ med miniscenarier og drivkrefter, versjon 2.0,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.sintef.no/globalassets/project/cineldi/cineldi-miniscenarier-til-web_07102020.pdf
 H. Vefsnmo, “Utarbeidelse av scenarier - Workshop i Trondheim 3. mai 2018,” CINELDI Internal (memo), Jun. 2018.
 Hanne Vefsnmo, Tonje S. Hermansen, Gerd Kjølle, and Kjell Sand, “Scenarier for fremtidens elektriske distribusjonsnett anno 2030-2040,” CINELDI / SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, CINELDI report 01:2018. [Online]. Available: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2681944
 G. Kjølle, K. Sand, and E. Gramme, “Scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid,” in CIRED 2021 - The 26th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, , Online Conference, 2021, pp. 3259–3263. doi: 10.1049/icp.2021.1527.
- Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation
- Repository of mini scenarios
- Use of results on driving forces and scenarios by the CINELDI partners (in the industry)
- Long-term value of flexibility for building operation
Smart grid scenarios and transition strategy
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