Results:

• Driving forces and mini scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid
• Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation
• Long-term value of flexibility for building operation
• Repository of mini scenarios
• Scenarios for the future distribution grid anno 2030-2040
• Use of results on driving forces and scenarios by the CINELDI partners (in the industry)

Smart grid scenarios and transition strategy
CINELDI's Knowledge base

The objective of this subtopic is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to other research areas in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. Driving forces for the future electricity distribution system of 2030-2040 are identified and scenarios are developed. This will contribute to integrating the results and findings from the other research areas into a holistic strategy for the transition to the future flexible and intelligent grid.

To better understand the development of the future electricity grid, a set of driving forces for system innovation for the Norwegian distribution grid have been identified and structured [1], [2]. The driving forces identified are systematized in three different categories: Megatrends, such as climate change, digitalisation or geopolitics; external driving forces, such as politics, technology or societal trends and values; and grid related driving forces, such as electrification, flexibility, cyber security, and security of electricity supply.

The work on driving forces inspired a set of mini-scenarios. A mini scenario can be a possible event, development or action which has an impact on the development of the distribution grid. The initial set of mini scenarios were increased, and collected in a mini-scenario repository [3].

Scenarios can help create an understanding of what the future may be like and serve as a foundation for strategic work, such as developing a strategy for the transition to the future flexible and intelligent grid. The work with driving forces and mini scenarios has informed the work with four main scenarios for the distribution grid in 2030-2040, developed along the axes of level of grid digitalization, and customer participation [4] and [5]. The resulting main scenarios is business as usual, the automated grid, the distribution grid as back-up, and the flexible and intelligent grid.

Selected publications from CINELDI:

1. T. S. Hermansen, G. H. Kjølle, H. Vefsnmo, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation,” SINTEF Energy Research, CINELDI Report 01:2019.
2. T. S. Hermansen, H. Vefsnmo, G. Kjølle, and K. Sand, “Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation - results from a foresight process,” CIRED 2019, Jun. 2019, doi: 10.34890/50.
3. G. Kjølle, “Drivkrefter og miniscenarier for fremtidens elektriske distribusjonsnett,” SINTEF Energy Research, CINELDI-report 01:2022.
4. [9] H. Vefsnmo, T. S. Hermansen, G. Kjølle, and K. Sand, “Scenarier for fremtidens elektriske distribusjonsnett anno 2030-2040,” SINTEF Energy Research, CINELDI report 01:2018.
5. [10] G. Kjølle, K. Sand, and E. Gramme, “Scenarios for the future electricity distribution grid,” in CIRED 2021 - The 26th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, Online Conference, 2021, pp. 3259–3263. doi: 10.1049/icp.2021.1527.