Abstract
This paper describes results from a demonstration study utilising an integrated approach (SAMREL)
for reliability of electricity supply analysis. The SAMREL methodology is based on a power market
simulator (EMPS), a power system simulator (PSSTME) and the OPAL1 methodology for reliability
and interruption cost assessment. The integrated methodology is used for short and long term
planning, such as investment analysis, optimization of operation, maintenance planning, as well as
reliability and interruption cost assessment.
The demonstration study shows the use of the SAMREL methodology combined with investment
analysis on a test system, visualising the possibilities and advantages of the methodology. The
integrated methodology has several advantages compared with a “traditional” reliability of supply
calculation:
A larger part of the sample space is analysed since many years of hydrological series are taken
into account, rather than just “heavy load” and “light load”. This gives new opportunities to
incorporate uncertainty and risk of e.g. dry years in the analyses, and improves the basis for
investment decisions.
Consistent information exchange and interaction between the different parts of the chain of
analyses improve the output generated by the different parts of the framework.
Altogether the integrated methodology enables consistent analysis of societal impacts of energy or
capacity shortage and interruptions, providing information about risk of high energy prices, risk of
load curtailment and interruption costs for delivery points
for reliability of electricity supply analysis. The SAMREL methodology is based on a power market
simulator (EMPS), a power system simulator (PSSTME) and the OPAL1 methodology for reliability
and interruption cost assessment. The integrated methodology is used for short and long term
planning, such as investment analysis, optimization of operation, maintenance planning, as well as
reliability and interruption cost assessment.
The demonstration study shows the use of the SAMREL methodology combined with investment
analysis on a test system, visualising the possibilities and advantages of the methodology. The
integrated methodology has several advantages compared with a “traditional” reliability of supply
calculation:
A larger part of the sample space is analysed since many years of hydrological series are taken
into account, rather than just “heavy load” and “light load”. This gives new opportunities to
incorporate uncertainty and risk of e.g. dry years in the analyses, and improves the basis for
investment decisions.
Consistent information exchange and interaction between the different parts of the chain of
analyses improve the output generated by the different parts of the framework.
Altogether the integrated methodology enables consistent analysis of societal impacts of energy or
capacity shortage and interruptions, providing information about risk of high energy prices, risk of
load curtailment and interruption costs for delivery points