Abstract
On the transition towards an electrified European energy system, flexible electricity use is crucial. The building stock, including electric vehicles, can offer flexibility, but it is still unclear towards which objective the flexibility should be provided. Further, it is complicated for end-users to react to market prices. This paper investigates how buildings adapt their electricity use by following pre-defined tactics, known as heuristics, instead of market prices. Two heuristics are studied in two future scenarios compliant with European renovation policies. Based on the responses towards the heuristics, this study explores how flexibility from the Norwegian building stock impact electricity production and cross-border exchanges towards 2040. Results show that hourly electricity delivery to the building stock can be strongly modified, resulting in decreased peak electricity delivery by 10%–12% in 2040 when following the heuristics. Nevertheless, findings suggest limited impact on the strategic investments in the power market as flexible Norwegian hydropower adapts production patterns towards economic and operational stability in response to the demand-side load modifications. Further research should continue exploring local impacts of flexibility heuristics, including grid bottlenecks and on-site electricity production integration, and refine assumptions about hydropower flexibility in aggregated power system models.