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Addressing dynamic risk in the petroleum industry by means of innovative analysis solutions


The importance of Integrated Operations (IO) is rapidly growing in today's petroleum industry. It is being
developed to improve capture of real-time safety barrier data and to process, visualize and share this
information for closer onshore-offshore collaboration and expert support. Increased capacity in the
communication infrastructure (e.g. via fibre optics) and integration and processing of data from various
sources enable more accurate methods of risk analysis that would have been previously considered timecostly.
For this reason this study addresses the topic of dynamic approach to risk in an IO context by
presenting and integrating advanced techniques of hazard identification and risk assessment, such as:
DyPASI (Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification), DRA (Dynamic Risk Assessment) and
the Risk Barometer methodology. DyPASI was developed in the EC project iNTeg-Risk. This technique
aims to produce complete and updated HAZID process. Atypical accident scenarios, which by definition
are deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios, are
identified through a systematic screening of related emerging risk notions. The DRA method aims to
estimate updated expected frequency of accident scenarios by means of Bayesian inference. Real time
abnormal situations or incident data are used as new information to update the failure probabilities of the
system safety barriers, which necessarily affect the overall scenario frequencies and the related risk
picture. The Risk Barometer was developed within the Center for Integrated Operations in the Petroleum
Industry. It aims to continuously monitor specific indicators measuring the status of critical safety barriers
and translate them into risk picture changes. Its result is an intuitive graphical representation of the overall
risk level in order to support decision makers in daily operations. The description of these techniques will
be accompanied by a preliminary application on a generic case-study, in order to demonstrate the
effectiveness of such dynamic approach in risk management and prevention of related major accidents.


Academic article




  • Nicola Paltrinieri
  • Giordano Scarponi
  • Faisal I. Khan
  • Stein Hauge


  • SINTEF Digital / Software Engineering, Safety and Security
  • University of Bologna
  • Memorial University of Newfoundland



Published in

Chemical Engineering Transactions




AIDIC - associazione italiana di ingegneria chimica




451 - 456

View this publication at Cristin