Abstract
This study evaluates the thermal flexibility potential of a newly constructed building complex in Bærum municipality, Norway, for district heating applications. Covering 38 000 m 2 , the complex comprises 49.6% residential, 39.0% office, and 11.4% retail space. Simulations are performed using IDA ICE software, which models both the building envelopes and the heating systems. These thermal models are calibrated according to construction guidelines and standard occupancy schedules for a typical winter period. Data on indoor temperatures, energy consumption, and environmental conditions are then used to develop grey-box models that estimate key flexibility measures: peak shaving and load shifting. While peak shaving is the current primary incentive for district heating, hourly energy price variations could enhance the potential of load shifting. Results indicate that residential buildings can reduce peak heating loads by 57.6 (Wh h −1 m −2 ), while office and retail spaces achieve reductions of 12.3 (Wh h −1 m −2 ) and approximately 16.6 (Wh h −1 m −2 ), respectively. Moreover, applying load-shifting flexibility may result in cost savings of up to 35.9% for residential buildings and 74.9% for retail spaces, underscoring these structures’ significant thermal flexibility potential.