Abstract
Analyses of the role of implementing energy efficiency measures for building mass upgrades in
Norway suggest that there is a large extent of cost-efficient measures that can and should be
implemented and would contribute to lowering the overall energy demand. Despite the
available potential, upgrades are observed to be performed at considerably lower rates than
cost-effective rates in practice. When including energy efficiency measures as investment
decisions, results from energy systems models may thus be overly optimistic in suggesting that
all cost-efficient measures will be implemented.
We attempt to improve the realism of estimates of the realizable potential of building
upgrades for Norwegian households based on existing behavioral research, where humans are
not purely rational decision-makers, but rather act according to their values, motivations,
barriers and mental shortcomings. The behavioral decision-making is modeled with an
agent-based model (ABM) that incorporates both psychological factors of individual
households as well as setting limits on how much agents can spend on upgrading the energy
standard of their residence by different measures (insulation, changing windows/doors etc).
In simulations, the households perform retrofits more gradually than cost-driven forecasts,
consistent with survey results. The results from simulating different hypothetical policies to
stimulate household retrofits suggest that households are sensitive to economic subsidies, and
this can indeed increase the realized potential for energy efficiency in households. We
combine the results from the ABM with IFE-TIMES-Norway to provide more realistic estimates
of the savings achievable on a national scale through economic policies targeting Norwegian
households.