Abstract
Following an international workshop on the topic of research needs in oil spill modeling, arranged by CRRC in Ann Arbor, MI, in September 2024, we present a review of what we find to be the most important and timely directions for oil spill trajectory and fate modeling research.
We discuss potential advances in the areas of transport (e.g., advection, diffusion, entrainment), fate (e.g., emulsification, shoreline interaction, countermeasures), uncertainty and calibration (e.g., ensemble simulations, dynamical systems tools, comparison to drifter and historical spills), as well as standardization efforts for oil spill model input and output. We argue that research in these topics will improve the quality and usefulness of oil spill models, as well as give us a better understanding of uncertainty and other limitations.
Research projects related to several topics are ongoing and we believe the others should be prioritized. Many of the topics can only be addressed through cross-disciplinary work with researchers outside the oil spill modeling community, ideally through international, collaborative efforts.