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An Evaluation of Neural Network Architectures for Predicting Hydro Unit Commitment Decisions

Abstract

This paper evaluates a range of neural network (NN) architectures for predicting short-term unit commitment (UC) decisions in a hydro-dominated power system. A dataset is generated using an operational hydro scheduling tool for a real Norwegian watercourse. We compare simple, convolutional, recurrent, and hybrid NN models for multilabel UC prediction over 24-h and 168-h scheduling horizons. All models achieve high predictive performance, with F1-scores above 97.35% and clear improvements over the relaxed Mixed-Integer Programming (No_MIP) baseline. Convolutional architectures exhibit the most consistent results across both horizons. When embedded into the scheduling pipeline, machine-learning-predicted UC decisions reduce median runtime by up to 64.4% while maintaining objective values close to those obtained with an exact MIP solution.

Category

Academic chapter

Language

English

Author(s)

Affiliation

  • SINTEF Energy Research / Renewable Energy
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • Zhejiang University

Year

2026

Publisher

IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)

Book

2026 22nd International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM

ISBN

9798319535542

View this publication at Norwegian Research Information Repository