Abstract
The Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) holds significant potential for developing offshore energy resources essential to European decarbonisation. Realisation of hydrogen production and offshore wind remains sensitive to natural gas volumes and prices, motivating a systematic assessment of investment strategies under varying market conditions. In a capacity expansion framework, the southern part of Norway and nearby offshore regions are modelled endogenously, while regions interlinked by electricity exchange capacities are represented by exogenous market prices. Hydrogen is evaluated together with electricity, natural gas and CO2, enabling an integrated assessment of export opportunities. The analyses indicate significant investment potential in both hydrogen production and offshore wind across a broad range of energy prices. For offshore wind, bottom-fixed capacity exhibits robust competitiveness, while floating installations rely on higher energy prices. Hydrogen remains primarily natural-gas-based but may shift geographically and technologically as electricity prices change, underscoring the importance of uncertainty in long-term offshore energy planning.