The objective of the VulPro project is to develop knowledge and methods for long-term prognosis of the risk to reliability of supply. New methods should be able to inform decisions in both power system asset management and system development in the Nordic power system in a consistent manner. Specifically, the methodologies will account for
- the condition and spatial location of power system components
- the long-term development and uncertainties in risk-influencing factors,
- interdependencies between the asset management and system development planning horizons.
One key challenge the project will have to overcome is to bridge the gap between individual assets and the power system in analyses of reliability of supply. The figure below gives a simplified illustration of a knowledge gap associated with the lack of consistency between risk analysis carried out at an asset level (left, traditionally for asset management purposes) and at a power system level (right, traditionally for system development purposes): The former focuses on a single asset or component in the power system (e.g. a transformer station) but does not properly account for its importance in the power system for the reliability of supply; the latter takes a broader view of the power system but usually neglects how the condition of individual components influences their probability of failure and how this contributes to the overall power system risk with regard to reliability of supply.
Another important challenge is that component condition and other risk-influencing factors are associated with uncertainties, which develop with time. The project seeks to quantify and propagate these uncertainties in the risk prognosis. Better knowledge will provide a more complete risk picture and has the potential to help system planners to identify vulnerabilities associated with power supply interruptions with severe consequences to reliability of supply. Ultimately, better information about how the risk may develop over time ensures the security of supply while enabling the power system to continue integrating more variable renewable energy.
This is a Knowledge-building Project for Industry financed by the Research Council of Norway.