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Demographic costs and changes in health status

The aim of this research project is to study and quantify the relationship between increased life expectancy and the future needs for health and care services.

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Ill.: Shutterstock/Hyejin Kang

The population is getting older, and life expectancy is increasing. This can affect public finances through several channels. Among other things, the effect will depend on whether the increased life years are in good health or whether the number of years of poor health will increase.

The project is commissioned by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Local Government and Modernization. Knowledge of the links between increased life expectancy, health status and the need for health and care services will form the basis for the preparation of annual budgets and be central to the assessment of the long-term sustainability of public finances. The aim of the project is to contribute to more accurate calculations of demographically driven expenditures in budget work, investment decisions in the municipal and hospital sector and long-term projections.

The project tasks include:

1) Mapping of assumptions for various projections of health expenditure and literature review. Including:

     a. Describe how assumptions about the relationship between life  expectancy and health status and other assumptions are incorporated in projections of health and care expenditure in Norway and in other comparable countries.

     b. Review of the knowledge base in the literature on the relationship between life expectancy and health status and use of health and care services.

2) Analysis of the connection between health status and use of resp. municipal health and care services and specialist health services. Including:

     a. Empirical analysis of the relationship between development in life expectancy and changes in health status.

     b. Empirical analysis of the connection between changed health status and the age-specific consumption of health and care services.

     c. Illustration of how the findings can be operationalized in long-term  projection work and in short-term budget work.

Key Factors

Project duration

2020 - 2021

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Demografikostnader og endringer i helsetilstand


The project is funded by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Health and Care Services and the Ministry of Local Government and Modernization

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