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Modelling of el-certificates in the EMPS model

El-certificates is a support-mechanism for renewable electricity production. Well-functioning tools for forecasting of prices, and the balance between demand and supply of certificates, are needed for this system to operate efficiently. Power-suppliers have to buy certificates on basis of the amount of power delivered, and forward the cost to their consumers. Since the certificate market is an integrated part of the power market, it is beneficial to utilize existing models for this market as a starting point for modelling.

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In the project we implemented the certificate market in the EMPS model (no: Samkjøringsmodellen), which is commonly used for electricity market studies. The model includes a detailed statistical representation of climate variables, as well as a method for optimal handling of storages, which are important elements for short-term forecasting of the certificate market.

Research challenges in the project included:

  • Application of the water-value method for a certificate storage
  • Dynamic calculation of penalty for missing certificates during settlements
  • Specification of end-value function for saved certificates if the horizon is before the planned end of the system

The project had the following phases:

  • designing the functionality
  • implementation, testing / case-studies
  • documentation /publication
  • preparation of final version of model

Key Factors

Project duration

2013 - 2014

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