SINTEF contributed to the work through senior research scientist Atle Harby at SINTEF Energy Research, who has been a member of the committee. The group, led by Ingrid Hjort (BI), was appointed by the government in July 2024. Its mandate has been to develop knowledge about the socioeconomic consequences of climate change in Norway, and about how society can facilitate adaptation that is socioeconomically profitable.
In February, SINTEF Energy Research hosted a two-day committee meeting in Trondheim, where research scientists from SINTEF and collaborating research communities provided expert input on flood mitigation, socioeconomic analyses, and climate adaptation in exposed sectors, among other topics.
"The work on socioeconomic assessments of climate adaptation has been demanding and at the same time very exciting, with an angle I haven't been used to. It's interesting to see that in this area too there are significant research challenges and a great need to work across disciplines," says Atle Harby.
Adaptation is a trade-off
A recurring message in the report is that climate consequences are not determined by the climate alone, but by how society responds. Adaptation is a trade-off: a lack of adaptation can be expensive, but investing in adaptation is also costly. The committee also points to a distributional dimension, where existing economic inequalities affect who has the ability to reduce harmful effects or take advantage of new opportunities.
Much climate adaptation is profitable in private economic terms and will therefore happen on its own, the committee maintains. But barriers such as a lack of information, unclear allocation of responsibility, conflicting objectives, and weak incentives can nonetheless lead to poor choices for society as a whole.
"The report shows that all parts of society will feel climate change, and that everyone must make a significant effort to adapt. We also point out that without better coordination, more knowledge, and holistic planning, we are unlikely to manage to adapt in an optimal way," says Harby.
The power sector is well prepared
For the power sector, the conclusion is cautiously optimistic. The committee judges that the sector has consistently good knowledge of consequences and solutions, and that today's institutional frameworks make it possible for it to adapt to climate change on its own.
"The power sector is well accustomed to handling both severe weather and climate change, and will largely manage to adapt to a different climate on its own. More inflow will, in isolation, give increased revenue, while damage and disruption associated with more extreme weather events will increase costs," says Harby.
The projections in the report show that climate change will lead to increased hydropower production as a result of greater inflow. In a medium scenario by the middle of the century, the production increase is estimated at around 1.3%. The effect is nonetheless limited compared with the annual variations in inflow, and the power price is influenced by a range of factors that will likely matter more than changes in inflow.
Recommendations to decision-makers
Among the committee's recommendations are to strengthen the funding of research on the economic effects of climate change, to establish better systems for collecting and sharing data on climate-related damage, and to build up a national system for evaluation and learning after serious climate events. The committee also recommends strengthening the role of the regional level of government, and moving away from coordinating adaptation according to one particular emissions scenario, in favour of a temperature target combined with uncertainty analyses and stress testing.
