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Security of Electricity Supply

A secure electricity supply is essential in an increasingly electrified society, where all critical societal functions and infrastructures – and thus societal security – depend on electricity.

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The electricity supply is the backbone of the energy system, as other energy systems also depend on electricity to function. At the same time, the power system is facing major changes: electrification is expected to double electricity demand and grid investments towards 2050, while new energy sources, storage solutions and digitalisation provide both increased flexibility and new vulnerabilities. Climate change, with more extreme weather events, increases the risk of failures leading to widespread power outages, and the threat landscape is expanding to include cyberattacks, physical attacks and disinformation in a geopolitical context where energy has taken on a strategic role.

The development of a future flexible, intelligent and resilient power system must therefore be balanced against cost efficiency, climate and nature considerations, while ensuring security of electricity supply at an acceptable level.

What is security of electricity supply?

Security of electricity supply is about the power system’s ability to continuously deliver electricity of a specified quality to end users. It consists of four main elements:

  • Energy availability: Access to sufficient energy resources to generate electricity. This includes hydropower, wind, solar, gas, and other energy sources. Energy shortage can lead to high prices and the risk of rationing.
  • Power capacity: The ability to have enough capacity in generation, power grids, and transformers to meet instantaneous demand. Even with sufficient energy resources, a lack of capacity in the grid or generation assets can cause power outages during periods of high demand.
  • Power (voltage) quality: The quality of the voltage supplied to end users. Poor voltage quality can damage equipment, cause unstable operation, and reduce the efficiency of electrical appliances and industrial facilities.
  • Reliability of supply: The availability of electrical energy, measured in the number and duration of interruptions. Traditionally, Norway has had very high reliability of supply (99.98%), but climate change, new operational stresses, and emerging threats challenge this level. 

Security of supply also involves resilience – preventing, managing, and rapidly restoring the electricity supply after unwanted events, so that societal functions and safety are maintained.

What society needs going forward:

  1. Comprehensive risk and vulnerability analyses: The power system is exposed to natural hazards, technical failures, and deliberate attacks. Traditional analyses are not sufficient. We need new methods that capture compound threats, intentional actions, and cascading effects –integrating technical, human, and organisational perspectives. We also need holistic approaches that address the interactions between generation, markets, consumption, and the grid in terms of security of supply.
  2. Better understanding of dependencies and cascading effects: The power system depends on other critical infrastructures such as ICT and transport, for example in the restoration of electricity supply after an adverse event. The transport system is also becoming an integrated part of the power system through electrification and the need for charging infrastructure.
  3. Strengthening local preparedness: Microgrids, energy communities, and islanded operation can ensure power to critical functions when the main grid fails. A better understanding of how local solutions can interact with the overall power system is necessary to strengthen resilience in practice.
  4. Robustness in value chains and critical infrastructure: The power system depends on global supply chains and key components such as transformers and switchgear. To reduce vulnerability, we must protect critical nodes and areas in the power system, secure spare parts, and develop operational strategies for rapid response to incidents – both physical and digital.

SINTEF’s research and expertise

SINTEF Energy Research has broad and deep expertise covering the full spectrum of security of electricity supply – from technical and economic analyses to societal perspectives and emergency preparedness. We develop methods, models, and tools that provide decision support for stakeholders in planning, operation, and crisis management.

Methods and tools

  • Energy availability and energy market modelling, including scenario development for future electricity generation and demand
  • Market and grid modelling, physical grid description, and simulation of capacity adequacy and operational patterns
  • Analysis of reliability of supply and integration of market models
  • Analysis tools: EMPS (multi area power-market simulator), Samnett, RELRAD, FASaD, SAMREL, OPAL, GraphCat, Monte Carlo tools for rare events

Reliability models and data

  • Models that include dependencies (geographical, temporal, technical, and organisational)
  • FASIT standard for collecting, analysing, and reporting failure and interruption data
  • Modelling of failure modes, degradation, and transfer capacity

Frameworks for risk and vulnerability

  • Bow-tie model: threats, vulnerabilities, unwanted events, and consequences
  • Analysis of HILP events (High Impact Low Probability)
  • Power system integrated with other energy systems and multiple energy carriers (electricity, heat, gas, hydrogen)
  • Cybersecurity as part of security of electricity supply
  • Indicators and methodology for analysing vulnerability and resilience
  • Interaction between preventive, corrective, and restorative measures

Socioeconomics and regulation

  • Methodology for estimating interruption costs
  • Incentive-based regulation of supply reliability through quality-adjusted revenue caps for Cost of energy not supplied (CENS (KILE in Norwegian))
  • Decision support for regulators and authorities related to security of electricity supply.

SINTEF’s research infrastructure

  • National Smart Grid Laboratory, SINTEF Energy Lab, and ElpowerLab
  • Living labs with smart homes, solar panels, EV charging, and energy storage
  • Test facilities for smart distribution grids (AC/DC), remote control, and monitoring.

Typical assignments

SINTEF supports stakeholders across the entire power sector – from grid companies and system operators to authorities, regulators, industry, and energy companies – with analyses, decision support, and the development of new solutions related to security of electricity supply. Our assignments range from technical measurements to strategic assessments related to societal security.

  • Long-term analyses of the energy situation and hydropower reservoir management
  • Reliability of supply analysis – mapping interruptions, duration, and consequences
  • Measurements and analysis of voltage quality – assessing how voltage quality affects end users, equipment, and the power grid
  • Decision support for regulation – assisting authorities and regulators in designing frameworks for security of electricity supply
  • Vulnerability analyses of the Nordic power system with respect to energy and capacity shortages and extraordinary events (blackouts)
  • Risk and vulnerability analyses – comprehensive analyses that include natural hazards, technical failures, deliberate attacks, and various dependencies, providing a basis for preparedness
  • Analysis of the interaction between the power system and ICT – how digitalisation and automation affect security of supply
  • Cybersecurity – assessing mutual dependencies and threats to digital control systems
  • Development of requirement specifications – for registering and reporting faults and interruptions in the standardized FASIT system
  • Development of methodology and data basis for CENS (KILE) – quality-adjusted revenue caps for cost of energy not supplied
  • Development of methodology for calculating reliability – in both radial and meshed power grids, including linkage to market models
  • Development of market models and models for hydropower management
  • Socioeconomic analyses – costs of interruptions and consequences for industry and society
  • Preparedness assessments – how the power system can handle crises, sabotage, and hybrid threats
  • Support for innovation and pilot projects – development and testing of new solutions in collaboration with grid companies and industry

Selected projects

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