Abstract
We present a multi-stage stochastic model that analyzes investments in natural gas fields and infrastructure. New projects are evaluated together with existing infrastructure and planned expansions. Several uncertain factors both upstream and downstream such as reservoir volumes, the composition of the gas in new reservoirs, market demand and price levels can influence the optimal decisions. The model focuses also on the impact of the sequencing of field developments and new infrastructure on the expected security of supply. In order to analyze all these aspects in one model, we propose a novel approach to scenario trees, combining long-term and short-term uncertainty. Dimensionality and solution times of realistic investment cases from the Norwegian Continental Shelf are discussed.