Abstract
Europe is warming at the fastest rate of all continents, experiencing a temperature increase of about 1
C higher than the corresponding global increase. Aiming to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under the European Green Deal, Europe requires an in-depth understanding of the potential energy transition pathways. In this paper, we develop four qualitative long-term scenarios covering the European energy landscape until 2060, considering key uncertainty pillars— categorised under social, technological, economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions. First, we place the scenarios in a three-dimensional space defined by Social dynamics, Innovation, and Geopolitical instabilities. These scenarios are brought to life by defining their narratives and focus areas according to their location in this three-dimensional space. The scenarios envision diverse futures and include distinct features. The EU Trinity scenario pictures how internal divisions among EU member states, in the context of global geopolitical instability, affect the EU climate targets. The REPowerEU++ scenario outlines the steps needed for a self-sufficient, independent European energy system by 2050. The Go RES scenario examines the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality earlier than 2050 given favourable uncertain factors. The NECP Essentials scenario extends current national energy and climate plans until 2060 to assess their role in realising climate neutrality. The scenarios are extended by incorporating policies and economic factors. They are then detailed in a Qualitative to Quantitative (Q2Q) matrix, linking narratives to quantification. Finally, two scenarios (Go RES and REPowerEU++) are quantified using the open-source energy system model GENeSYS-MOD to illustrate the quantification process.
C higher than the corresponding global increase. Aiming to be the first climate-neutral continent by 2050 under the European Green Deal, Europe requires an in-depth understanding of the potential energy transition pathways. In this paper, we develop four qualitative long-term scenarios covering the European energy landscape until 2060, considering key uncertainty pillars— categorised under social, technological, economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions. First, we place the scenarios in a three-dimensional space defined by Social dynamics, Innovation, and Geopolitical instabilities. These scenarios are brought to life by defining their narratives and focus areas according to their location in this three-dimensional space. The scenarios envision diverse futures and include distinct features. The EU Trinity scenario pictures how internal divisions among EU member states, in the context of global geopolitical instability, affect the EU climate targets. The REPowerEU++ scenario outlines the steps needed for a self-sufficient, independent European energy system by 2050. The Go RES scenario examines the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality earlier than 2050 given favourable uncertain factors. The NECP Essentials scenario extends current national energy and climate plans until 2060 to assess their role in realising climate neutrality. The scenarios are extended by incorporating policies and economic factors. They are then detailed in a Qualitative to Quantitative (Q2Q) matrix, linking narratives to quantification. Finally, two scenarios (Go RES and REPowerEU++) are quantified using the open-source energy system model GENeSYS-MOD to illustrate the quantification process.