Abstract
This report presents a macroeconomic analysis of two scenarios that examine the role of waste-to-energy (WtE) and municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems in a circular economy. Using a trajectory interindustry model, the study assesses how shifts in household consumption patterns and improvements in waste sorting and recycling could affect value creation, employment, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Norwegian economy by 2035. Both scenarios show modest increases in GDP and employment, but also reveal complex trade-offs, including sectoral shifts and increases in GHG emissions. The findings underscore the potential for decoupling economic growth from environmental harm, while also pointing to the challenges of achieving systemic transformation. The report highlights the importance of sectoral policy support and improved data quality to inform future circular economy strategies. It concludes that while circular transitions are feasible, they require coordinated efforts among policy, industry, and society to ensure they are both effective and equitable.