Ground Thermal Simulation and Probabilistic Pile Capacity Analysis in Permafrost

Detailed ground thermal simulations are performed for Longyearbyen, revealing significant shifts in active layer thickness and permafrost temperatures due to climate change, with the active layer projected to increase in thickness by 2070 and permafrost warming significantly. Ground thermal simulations provide a basis for these projections, highlighting potential impacts on infrastructure and ecosystems. A probabilistic methodology for evaluating pile foundation capacity in permafrost is introduced, employing Monte Carlo simulations to address uncertainties in environmental and material properties. Sensitivity analyses within this framework emphasize the importance of probabilistic approaches in geotechnical engineering, enabling more effective risk management and design optimization in response to changing permafrost conditions.