Confidence analysis of design and cost performance for solvent-based CO₂ capture from a cement plant: a stochastic modeling perspective

This study seeks to understand the impact of uncertainties in the solvent property submodel on the design and cost of the solvent-based CO₂ capture process. First, a deterministic model of the MEA-based CO₂ capture process using the CEMCAP reference cement plant case was developed and validated in the CO2SIM flowsheet simulator. Subsequently, a stochastic approach using the Monte Carlo simulation framework was applied by coupling the validated process model and UQLab, a MATLAB-based uncertainty quantification toolbox. Based on this, the implications of these uncertainties on key performance indicators are derived: CO₂ capture ratio, specific reboiler duty, reboiler duty, condenser duty, lean rich heat exchanger duty, and lean and rich loading. Finally, the impact of these uncertainties on equipment design and the CO₂ avoidance cost are assessed and discussed. The results show that heat exchanger duty uncertainty falls within the overdesign margin commonly used in engineering practice. However, the CO₂ avoidance cost exhibits significant uncertainty linked to solvent properties (∼5.2%) that are mainly linked to uncertainty in the CO₂ capture ratio. Hence, a key element in reducing CO₂ avoidance cost uncertainty may be to validate suitable absorber height to guarantee, with a reasonable confidence, a 90% capture ratio via pilot testing.