Prediction of power, energy and hydrogen demand in a zero-emission port

Norway aims to achieve a zero-emission maritime fleet by 2050. To reach this goal it is predicted that shore power and green alternatives such as full-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, hydrogen, ammonia and methanol are implemented. All the mentioned options require electricity from renewable sources to be considered emission-free. However, a detailed power analysis regarding a zero-emission port is still not developed for the maritime sector. Therefore in this master thesis, a model is developed which considers the use of different green alternatives to compute the future energy, power, and hydrogen demand at a zero-emission port. The developed model consists of three parts ”Load Model”, ”Electricity Price Model”, and ”Optimization Model” and is designed in a generalized manner so that it can be applied to all ports in Norway. The ”Load Model” determines the total loads included in a zero-emission port, considering hydrogen, shore power, and charge power to full-electric and plug-in hybrid ships per hour throughout the year. In addition, the energy production from local solar panels is included. The ”Optimization Model” consists of two optimization problems, which utilize the calculated loads, in addition to the electricity prices and grid tariffs to estimate an optimal production of hydrogen based on minimizing annual costs of operation. The ”Optimal operation” optimizes the operation cost in a port where the capacities of electrolysis, transformer and hydrogen storage are limited, while ”Operation and investment optimization” includes finding the optimal sizes of electrolysis, transformer and hydrogen storage for a port by minimizing the investment cost in addition to the operation cost. In this master thesis, the port of Oslo is utilized as a case study to analyze the future power, energy and hydrogen demand for six different fuel mix scenarios. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to test the impact of the different system parameters. Summarizing the results, the implementation of shore power for all ships is estimated to require approximately 7 GWh for a year with a power peak reaching 3 MW. This implementation has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions in ports by approximately 4505 tons per year. Furthermore, in a scenario where all ships are either ”Green hybrids” or fueled with hydrogen, the total hydrogen demand for a year is calculated to be 18260 tons with a total energy demand of 923 GWh and a power peak reaching 170 MW. This implementation has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions in ports by approximately 215422 tons of CO₂ per year. However, the predicted power demand is 4.7 times greater than the existing transformer capacity in the port of Oslo. This indicates that the capacity in both the transformers and cables needs to be renewed to handle a higher power demand in the future. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of this master thesis presents that the day-ahead prices of former years as well as a higher investment cost of electrolysis can reduce the simulated power peaks. The results obtained from this study contribute to providing an overview of the approximate total energy, power, and hydrogen demand that may emerge in the future. The primary purpose of this study is to raise awareness among stakeholders and industry participants regarding the projected demand, enabling them to plan and adapt their infrastructure and capacities accordingly. By doing so, they can better prepare for the anticipated changes and requirements in the maritime sector.