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Projected changes of the emission and transport of organic pollutants and metals from shipping in European seas 2018–2050

Abstract

The ChemicalDrift model is applied to predict concentrations of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from shipping in European seas in 2050, compared to 2018. Sources include antifouling paints (AFPs), discharge water from scrubbers and atmospheric deposition. The fate of pollutants in the marine environment is presented, highlighting the effect of degradation and volatilization, with seasonal and regional differences. A simplified impact assessment is outlined, where predicted environmental concentrations of individual chemicals and whole effluent concentrations of scrubber discharge water are compared to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) or lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC). The 2018 assessment shows scrubber effluent concentrations exceeding LOEC in Baltic and North Sea coastal regions. By 2050, assuming high use of scrubbers, elevated concentrations may extend to all European seas. For AFPs, assuming continued use of primarily copper-based paints, the highest copper concentrations are projected in 2050 for North Sea ports and coasts, potentially exceeding PNECs.

Category

Academic article

Language

English

Author(s)

  • Manuel Aghito
  • Elisa Majamäki
  • Risto Hänninen
  • Anna Lunde Hermansson
  • Ida-Maja Hassellöv
  • Erik Ytreberg
  • Vassilis Kolovoyiannis
  • Vassilis Zervakis
  • Maria Granberg
  • Jana Moldanová
  • Knut-Frode Dagestad
  • Øyvind Breivik
  • Lars Robert Hole
  • Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen

Affiliation

  • SINTEF Industry / Applied Geoscience
  • Finnish Meteorological Institute
  • Chalmers University of Technology
  • Kristineberg Marine Research Station
  • IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB
  • Panepistimion Aegaeou
  • University of Bergen
  • Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway)

Year

2025

Published in

Marine Pollution Bulletin

ISSN

0025-326X

Volume

211

Page(s)

1 - 21

View this publication at Norwegian Research Information Repository