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The Aggregation of Wind Time-Series in Capacity Expansion Models

Abstract

Capacity Expansion Models (CEMs) are widely used in the academic literature to understand the needs and dynamics of highly renewable energy systems. Due to computational constraints, it is common to aggregate time-series data such as hourly power output from Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) using clustering algorithms. However, there is evidence that the presence of wind data leads to increased clustering errors and biased investment decisions. With the above motivation, we combine two approaches from the literature and compare them against the state-of-the-art approach. For a small number of clusters, the proposed approach recovers 95% of the original variance and correlation. This leads to more robust investment decisions. However, we stress the increased computational burden involved.
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Category

Academic article

Language

English

Author(s)

Affiliation

  • SINTEF Energy Research / Energisystemer
  • Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • University of Utah

Year

2025

Published in

Energy Proceedings

Volume

54

View this publication at Norwegian Research Information Repository