Abstract
Accurate long-term forecasts of aggregate energy load profiles are crucial for effective energy system planning at regional and national scales. This study aims to validate PROFet, a flexible load profile modeling tool. PROFet forecasts weather-dependent heating and electrical load profiles at an hourly resolution for both residential and non-residential buildings connected to district heating systems. Given that the tool’s accuracy for residential buildings has been demonstrated in previous studies, further validation is needed for non-residential buildings. To achieve this, our study evaluates PROFet’s extrapolation performance using an out-of-sample test dataset from Trondheim municipality. The results show that PROFet accurately forecasts the hourly heating load during the space-heating season but is less accurate during periods when domestic hot water needs dominate. The tool exhibits nearly identical performance across the three cases, except for efficient kindergartens, where the estimation accuracy is lower.