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NTRANS Socio-technical pathways and scenario analysis

Abstract

Under the framework of NTRANS Research Area 4 on Transition pathways studies, we have developed four energy transition pathways. The aim was to establish a systematic methodology for analysing transition pathways for Norway that could be used and further developed by the NTRANS partners and the research community at wide. This report provides a description of the four Norwegian NTRANS transition pathways towards 2050. The socio-technical scenarios are described by driving forces behind each pathway, as well as a description of national and sectoral development in the different pathways. The qualitative descriptions of the four pathways have been discussed and evaluated to be able to quantify each pathway. The quantification of the pathways has been implemented in the energy system model IFE-TIMES-Norway and in the regional economic model REMES. Then, the two models have been used to analyse the impact of the different transition pathways on the energy system and the economy, and the results of the analyses are presented as scenario results. The four socio-technical scenarios are based on the degree of disruption to the existing socio technical regime and its central actors and institutions. We do so by distinguishing varying degrees of depth of change in two dimensions: socio-institutional and technological dimensions. ISBN: 978-82-93863-24-3
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Category

Research report

Language

English

Author(s)

  • Kari Aamodt Espegren
  • Kristina Haaskjold
  • Eva Rosenberg
  • Sigrid Damman
  • Tuukka Mäkitie
  • Allan Dahl Andersen
  • Tomas Moe Skjølsvold
  • Paolo Pisciella

Affiliation

  • SINTEF Digital / Technology Management
  • University of Oslo
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • Institute for Energy Technology

Year

2023

Publisher

FME NTRANS

ISBN

9788293863243

View this publication at Norwegian Research Information Repository