Abstract
Longyearbyen, the world's northernmost settlement and the administrative center of Svalbard, Norway, experienced a fatal avalanche disaster in 2015. Another avalanche hit the settlement in 2017, this time without fatalities. These accidents led to the introduction of a local avalanche forecasting system assessing the avalanche risk daily during the winter season. In this paper, we evaluate the current local avalanche forecasting system, from data collection to decision-making, with the aim to improve the communication of risk and uncertainty, as well as improving the foundation for decision-making (e.g., deciding on the need for evacuation). The overall methodology consists of action research in close collaboration with local stakeholders, a risk governance framework and a comparative analysis. The latter includes a comparison with the regional avalanche warning system for Svalbard provided by the Norwegian authorities, a European study on local avalanche warning, and a guideline for local avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. The results show potential improvements regarding communication of risk and uncertainty during data collection, risk assessment, and decision-making. This includes recommended changes to the risk matrices currently employed in the local forecasting system and explicitly addressing uncertainty during all phases of the risk governance process.