Abstract
The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very good. The main target group of the scenario results is the Transmission System Operators (TSOs), but the results will also be relevant for the Nordic politicians and investment decision makers in the power industry. The scenarios will among other be used for the following purposes: Identify profitable investments in transmission grids with particular focus on the interconnections between the Nordic region and Continental Europe Technical simulations of the power system with focus on balancing of large shares of non-dispatchable renewable resources in a future system. Assess impacts on the power system with large-scale deployment of electric vehicles. Discuss necessary governance transformation related to the transmission grid development The paper presents a scenario methodology where each scenario consists of a possible future and a strategy for how the decision maker (TSOs) can act within that future. Each future consists of a set of uncertainties which are factors/developments that cannot be directly controlled by the decision makers. Each strategy contains a combination of technical and non-technical options for decision makers. Application of this methodology for the study of a Nordic power system free of GHG emissions is described. Furthermore, the paper describes the resulting scenarios and compares them with the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (NETP). Finally, quantification of input data for technical analyses is given. The input data are mainly based on statistical data from the four countries and information about established and planned projects for new renewable power production in the Nordic region.