Abstract
Deep-sea mining is an emerging sector operating in conditions of scientific uncertainty, ecological fragility, and geopolitical tension. In such contexts, risk becomes central to governance, influencing both regulatory frameworks and corporate decision-making. This study examines how companies perceive and navigate these risks when operating in international versus national jurisdictions. The research is based on anonymous surveys and semi-structured interviews with CEOs, CFOs, service providers, and policy makers active in the international area of the sea floor and exclusive economic zones. Purposeful maximum variation sampling was applied to capture a wider range of industry perspectives.
Findings show that regulatory, market, and environmental risks are seen as the most significant constraints on investment, while geological and geotechnical risks are generally perceived as less critical. In addition, many participants highlighted risks related to social acceptance and other social issues. Also, risks related to biased scientific agendas, geopolitics, intellectual property, benefit-sharing, transparency, availability and cost of substitute materials, and culture were added. Many participants expect the first commercial deep-sea mining operations to begin within national jurisdictions due to more advanced regulatory framework, community support, and institutional facilitation. The findings show that risk in the deep-sea mining sector is co-constructed by corporate, regulatory, and community actors, functioning not only to anticipate harm but also to enable action and shift accountability.