Abstract
Conditional grid connection agreements enable earlier customer connections in areas with capacity shortages by allowing grid connection under predefined operational constraints. Understanding the risk related to such agreements is essential for both grid operators and potential customers. This paper presents an approach for the initial assessment of risk related to conditional grid connections, with particular emphasis on weather-dependent line ratings and failure probability. Risk indicators, such as the expected annual conditionally curtailed energy (CCE), provide insight into the risk associated with such agreements and can serve as a foundation for more detailed analysis at a later stage. A novel method of estimating weather-dependent fragility curves is proposed. The case study presented relies largely on open-source weather data, making it an accessible method of risk analysis for grid operators, potential customers, and researchers.