Abstract
The European power system is transitioning towards a zero-emission system. The shift to Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) complicates the task of maintaining a balance between consumption and production, as well as increasing the flexibility requirements. Offshore wind power (OWP) is central to the European Union’s strategy for achieving climate targets, with an ambitious expansion target of reaching an OWP capacity of 300 GW by 2050. Similarly, Norway aims to allocate offshore areas corresponding to 30 GW by 2040. This new OWP capacity will require grid expansions, and the configuration of the offshore grid will significantly influence the efficiency of the OWP integration.
This paper examines the impacts and challenges for Norway in achieving an installed OWP capacity of 21 GW by 2040. The analysis is based on power market simulations of the North-European power system. The case study investigates two scenarios for demand flexibility in Norway — one with 16% flexible demand and another with 30% flexibility. Furthermore, it analyses three scenarios depicting distinct grid configurations in the North Sea, spanning from a radial grid to a grid with a considerable amount of interconnectivity.
The simulation results revealed significant bottlenecks in the Norwegian grid, creating low- and high-price areas. Current transfer capacities are inadequate to balance power distribution effectively, suggesting that enhancing transfer capacities or strategically relocating OWP capacity could mitigate these disparities. Increased demand flexibility was found to lower electricity prices and reduce price volatility in the high-price area, where peak spring prices decreased by an average of 130 EUR/MWh. This reduction was achieved through the use of more cost-effective demand flexibility options with lower activation prices. The grid scenarios revealed that increasing connectivity in the North Sea Region (NSR) through meshed grids enhances the distribution of OWP and reduces curtailment. However, the economic benefits of increased transfer capacities are limited and must be balanced
towards the costs of grid extensions. Nevertheless, improved connectivity offers non-economic advantages such as enhanced supply security and sustainability.