Abstract
Circular strategies, such as the reuse and recycling of materials, enabled by urban mining, mitigate the environmental impact of construction. However, detailed information on structural components in existing buildings – especially those designed without Building Information Modelling (BIM) support - is limited. Historical structural design codes provide a basis for inferring structural material quantities by outlining the safety and serviceability requirements that were adhered to when the buildings were originally designed. To account for designer’s choice of structural design variables, we incorporate probabilities and repeated expected value calculations in the historical design process. This approach allows us to develop a rationale for probabilistically estimating expected structural material quantities and expected beam sections in timber roofs using historical design codes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method by comparing with site measurements resulting in a percentage error less than seven percent; suggesting that the proposed method is a valid alternative to site measurements.