Abstract
This report examines how uncertainty should be represented in energy system analyses, and evaluates the implications of different uncertainty-modelling approaches for energy planning and investment decisions. The review finds that simple and transparent approaches, such as sensitivity and scenario analyses, dominate both practice and energy system studies, while more advanced methods provide stronger probabilistic foundations but often face computational limitations.
A case study using the EnergyModelsX (EMX) framework investigated the impact of operational and strategic uncertainties on North Sea energy infrastructure investments. Results show that operational uncertainty can significantly affect investment decisions and reduce optimal investments. Strategic uncertainties had comparatively limited impact on results. Overall, the study demonstrates that uncertainty modelling can provide important insights beyond deterministic analyses, particularly when assessing variability, risk, and investment robustness.