Abstract
This paper applies a long-term modeling approach to analyze Tunisia’s energy transition up to 2050. Using the bottom-up optimization tool GENeSYS-MOD, this study adopts a holistic, full energy system perspective across the power, transport and heating sectors. The main purpose is to provide insights into cross-sectorial synergies, system-wide efficiency gains, and policy implications for sustainable energy future through the analysis of four scenarios. The Baseline (Business-as-usual) scenario assumes limited renewable deployment and fossil fuel dependence. The current policies scenario reflects accelerated renewable technologies in line with existing policy measures. The national strategy scenario is aligned with Tunisia’s official climate and energy objectives, while the non-constrained scenario explores a cost-optimal evolution of the energy without predefined policy constraints. The scenarios are assessed in terms of energy mix evolution, greenhouse gas emissions, primary energy demand, and global systems costs. The findings indicate that renewable energy technologies, particularly solar and wind, emerge as the dominant sources of future electricity mix, while energy storage and sector coupling are identified as essential in maintaining system flexibility and reliability under high renewable penetration. Specifically, the national strategy scenario illustrates that renewable energies can supply about 35% of electricity demand by 2030, more than 53% and reach 100% by 2050. This accelerated transition reduces emissions by 46% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels. The main outcome is that early and strategic deployment of these low-carbon technologies can significantly reduce system costs and emissions. This offers valuable insights and guidance for policymakers working towards a sustainable energy transition in Tunisia.