Abstract
This study investigates the implications of relying on robust hydropower scheduling for ensuring energy security in low-carbon power systems. A hydropower scheduling, costminimizing central dispatch model with risk aversion is used to solve two-stage problems on a rolling horizon using Benders’ decomposition. The model is applied to a simplified representation of a low-carbon, hydropower-rich power system. Moderately risk-averse water management proves valuable in a low-carbon power system with expensive flexibility sources, as it better prepares for costly, unforeseen events, thereby reducing average costs. Meanwhile, hedging too much against worst-case scenarios can lead to inefficiencies and high consumer bills. The paper concludes by discussing policy insights and reflecting on social expectations about energy security in low-carbon, hydrodominated power systems.