Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of a scenario with 30 GW of offshore wind deployment in Norway, in line with government ambitions. The main question addressed is to what extent the existing hydro power reservoirs can balance variations in power demand and renewable power availability in such a future scenario, and to what extent new flexibility is needed. To answer this question, the study simulates the future power system with 30 weather years with hour-by-hour resolution, using a grid-market simulator that includes physical power flows and hydro power reservoir dynamics. The study describes key power system adequacy characteristics under base case assumptions and multiple sensitivity case assumptions. Results indicate that the power demand is not always supplied, and there is a need for more flexibility to cope with the increased power demand and variability from wind and solar power. Except for years with unusually high wind and water inflow, hydro power reservoirs are tapped to their lower limit resulting in insufficient available generation capacity. Unsurprisingly, this occurs in the winter when the water inflow is low and the demand is high.