Abstract
This paper presents quantitative scenario results for the European Energy Vision 2060 (EU-EnVis-2060) and discusses implications for the evolution of the European energy system and infrastructure. Four coordinated pathways are explored: EU Trinity, NECP Essentials, REPowerEU++, and Go RES, which span different combinations of policy ambition, technological progress, and geopolitical stability while remaining rooted in EU frameworks such as the Green Deal, Fit-for-55, REPowerEU and updated NECPs. All scenarios are quantified with the open-source, sector-coupled energy system model GENeSYS-MOD. Results show strong electrification in all pathways, but with markedly different transition speeds, technology portfolios, and flexibility strategies. Three scenarios reach carbon neutrality by 2060, while EU Trinity falls short despite high electrification. Go RES represents an early-transition pathway, relying on rapid VRE expansion supported by transmission build-out and hydrogen-based flexibility, whereas slower pathways depend more on electricity storage and retain transitional fuels for longer.