Abstract
Bioeconomy strategies are increasingly promoted to reconcile economic development with environmental sustainability in agri-food systems, yet the system-wide impacts of alternative bioeconomy pathways remain insufficiently understood. This study evaluates three alternative bioeconomy visions biotechnology, bioresource, and bioecology in Norway using a macroeconometric modelling framework. While the analysis considers economy-wide transitions associated with these visions, the dairy sector and its related value chains are used as a case study to examine sectoral impacts within the broader Norwegian economy. Scenario-based modelling is applied using the SUMSNorway macroeconometric framework, translating each vision into distinct assumptions on policy orientation, technology, and resource use. The results reveal trade-offs between the paths to follow: the bioresource vision delivers the strongest economic and employment growth, the biotechnology vision achieves the largest greenhouse gas reductions with lower economic gains, and the bioecology vision represents an intermediate pathway. The results show how the definition of bioeconomy can lead to different systemic changes, even in one single economic sector. the results from the diary sector case study also demonstrate the value of macroeconomic scenario modelling for informing targeted and sustainable bioeconomy policies.