Abstract
The transport sector has been identified as one of the sectors that are most challenging to decarbonize in time to meet international and national climate targets. For maritime transport, few alternatives to fossil fuels are available on the market today. There are multiple barriers to the deployment of alternative fuels, linked to economic costs and risk, infrastructure, and system integration, as well as acceptance and uncertainty concerning future regulations and framework conditions. At the same time, new and radical solutions are being explored. Besides battery-electric solutions, hydrogen and ammonia, synthetic fuels, and second and third generation biofuels are likely to become central in the future maritime fuel mix. Some of these are relatively close to fullscale implementation, whereas others are in the early stages of development.
Norway is interesting as a case for study of this transition to green shipping. In addition to being a seafaring nation, Norway has a strong focus on green solutions in the maritime industry and high ambitions for transitioning the transport and industry sectors. Moreover, Norway is an open, petroleum-dependent economy, which from nature's side is well endowed with renewable energy resources.
The range of opportunities and challenges identified call for a hybrid perspective on sustainability transition pathways, integrating techno-economic and macro-economic impact scenarios as well as socio-technical analysis of ongoing patterns of change within transport and related sectors. This report is a part of an interdisciplinary process in NTRANS RA4, where we explore ways to bridge these perspectives through a ten-step methodology. NTRANS Report 02/2023 (Espegren et al., 2023) provides an overview of this methodology and proposes four overarching socio-technical pathways that can be further used and developed to shed new light on alternative energy transition pathways for Norway. This report presents the results from a case study on the maritime sector, where we apply the overarching energy transition pathways for Norway developed in NTRANS (Espegren et al., 2023). Following an outline description of the regime of existing technologies, institutions, and practices in the maritime sector, we assess recent developments and current trends associated with emerging niche innovations, i.e., different electrification and alternative fuel solutions that may contribute significantly to maritime energy transition. The findings are discussed in relation to a parallel case study (Chang et al., 2024), based on modelling in IFE-TIMES-Norway, and the overarching pathway storylines. We contribute to the study of energy transitions by showing how a qualitative socio-technical transitions perspective (Geels et al., 2020; Turnheim & Nykvist, 2019) can supplement quantitative modelling by shedding light on current patterns of change and identifying potential bottlenecks.