Landing in Belém for COP30 felt both exciting and sobering. The Amazon heat - 33°C and rising - was a stark reminder of what’s at stake. The pavilions this year seemed less extravagant, perhaps signaling a shift toward resource efficiency. If so, that’s a good start. But symbolism alone won’t shift the emissions trajectory.
The Big Questions at COP30
COP30 brings critical issues to the forefront. The agenda is demanding:
- Climate finance – Who pays, and how ?
- The Baku-to-Belém roadmap – Can we accelerate ambition towards grants?
- Adaptation and loss & damage – How do we protect the most vulnerable?
- New Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledges for 2035 – Will they close the gap to 1.5°C?
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: history tells us that most countries won’t deliver on their pledges. But even if every country did deliver, we will still overshoot the Paris Agreement's targets. Current trajectories from the NDCs point closer to 2.5°C. That’s not good enough.
Why “Net Geological Zero” Matters
We need to move beyond creative accounting and “hot air” in carbon markets. Forest offsets and flexible mechanisms won’t save us when moving towards net zero. What will? Storing the same amount of fossil carbon we emit into the atmosphere permanently.
“Net geological zero” - the point where we permanently remove the same amount of fossil carbon from the atmosphere as we emit - is not just a concept, but a necessity. That means CCS, enhanced weathering, and CO2 storage in stable materials - solutions that lock carbon away for good. Net geological zero isn’t just a concept; it’s a necessity if we want to draw down CO2 and stabilise the climate.
Technology and Cooperation: No Silver Bullet
Solar, wind and batteries are booming, but largely because they make economic sense. That’s good, but not enough. We need systemic solutions, there is no one size fits all.
At the Nordic Pavilion, I joined a panel on hydrogen with colleagues from Finland and Denmark. We discussed ammonia, e-fuels, and batteries—and the tough trade-offs between energy and food security. The takeaway? The Nordics can lead, but leadership means action, not just ambition.
Insights and Encounters
I met Jared Daniels from the Global CCS Institute (GCCSI), and our conversation on CCS optimism was refreshing. The EU's Net Zero Industry Act is injecting momentum, but urgency is key. We must make green the default, and apply a 'black premium' to carbon-intensive options.
Later, at the Portuguese Pavilion, I spoke about scientific diplomacy and SINTEF’s global initiatives like Ocean Plastic Turned into an Opportunity in Circular Economy (OPTOCE) (turning ocean plastics into fuel for cement kilns) and EnergizeNepal (building sediment-resistant hydropower turbines). These projects show what real cooperation looks like, with solutions tailored to local needs.
The Hard Truth
115 of the 195 countries who signed the Paris Agreement have submitted new targets, but these only cut emissions by 5–10% by 2030. We need 43–45%. The gap is glaring. Negotiators are wrestling with compliance mechanisms (because right now, there are none). And the fossil fuel language? Still contentious. Will COP30 echo Dubai’s call to transition away from fossil fuels? Or will geopolitics win again?
Inside the Negotiation Rooms
There was also the chance to catch up with Marianne Karlsen, Norway’s Chief Negotiator, at the Norwegian Pavilion. Her perspective was clear: negotiations are moving faster this year, driven by a coalition of willing countries. But the big question remains: how do we handle non-compliance? The Paris Agreement has no enforcement mechanism, and that gap is becoming critical as targets slip. What do we do when the NDCs do not match the cuts needed to keep to the Paris Agreement's ambition? Marianne emphasised the delicate balance in the room: every word matters - “shall,” “should,” “may” - because these words shape global action.
Why This Matters
Iceland is sounding the alarm on the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as a national security threat. Bangladesh’s initially empty pavilion reminds us who suffers most from inaction. Meanwhile, biodiversity in the Amazon hangs by a thread. These aren’t abstract risks—they’re real, and they’re accelerating. COP30 won’t solve everything. But it can set the tone for the next decade.
The question is: will we seize the moment—or let it slip away? Let's not make COP30 the end of the road.
