- Gerd Kjølle
- Chief Scientist
- 906 72 035
- Energy Systems
- SINTEF Energi AS
Smart grid scenarios and transition strategies (WP6)
- Drivers, barriers and enablers for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation
- Scenarios for the future flexible and intelligent distribution system in Norway
- Transition pathways and guidelines
2. Tertial 2018
Significant results (highlights and their innovation potential)
- Further developing mini scenarios
- Repository with 109 mini scenarios à input to partners' strategies and innovation, and to further research in WP1-5
- Started to develop main scenarios à input to discussions and further development
- CINELDI partner meeting: "Utvikle scenarier for fremtidens distribusjonsnett" (Blog)
- Workshop for developing scenarios for the future distribution grid – partner meeting 3rd May
- Receiving input from WP-leaders on how to proceed with mini scenarios and main scenarios – 26th June
- Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation (final draft report updated for QA)
- "Utarbeidelse av scenarier" (memo)
- "Utarbeidelse av flere miniscenarier" (memo)
- Repository of 109 mini scenarios in Excel
- Mini scenarios further developed and repository established
- Postdoc Mario Blazquez de Paz transferred to WP3 from T2-2018
- Nathalie Skyttermoen, specialisation project started: "Elektrifisering av transport i Eidsiva Netts område". Relevant for WP1 and WP6
1. Tertiary 2018
- Driving forces prioritized and structured according to importance and uncertainty - facilitate establishing mini scenarios
- Mini scenarios sorted according to grid related KPIs, consequences and work packages - important input to WP1-5
- Identified dimensions spanning the opportunity set for the main scenarios (2040) - foundation for building main scenarios
- Structured driving forces
- Mini scenarios adapted and sorted
- Identified dimensions spanning the opportunity set for the main scenarios (2040)
- PhD/Postdoctor Status
- Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation (draft report)
- Working paper postdoctor (draft): Design of congestion rents to increase flexibility in electricity markets.
- WP- and task leders: prioritizing driving forces, further developing mini scenarios
- Expert group meetings preparing workshop on scenarios 3rd May
- Start-up meeting for work by subcontractor SIN
- Postdoctor started, first paper under developm.
Smart grid scenarios and transition strategies (WP6)
The objective of WP6 is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packages in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. WP6 will also develop guidelines and recommendations for the transition to the flexible, robust, and cost-efficient electricity distribution system of 2030 – 2040, by integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.
The expected impact is a structured multidisciplinary research, providing results that are robust to external requirements and opportunities for the future distribution system. WP6 will establish a common basis for the various work packages regarding the future distribution grid, while providing direction for research in CINELDI.
Foresight process developing scenarios
The future grid anno 2030-2040 will be a complex system-of-systems, incorporating various intelligent devices and technologies. On the cyber-physical electricity distribution system level, the interactions between various technological, economic, organisational, and human factors add complexity that needs to be addressed in a holistic and coordinated way in order to support the system innovation. WP6 seeks to identify the main drivers, barriers and enablers for this system innovation and based on this, develops a set of credible scenarios for the electricity distribution system in Norway.
The work on scenarios is performed as a foresight process through workshops and meetings gathering all partners in CINELDI, supported with literature surveys and further studies. In the first workshop that was arranged during kick-off of CINELDI in fall 2016, a stakeholder analysis was performed.
Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation
In May 2017, a workshop was arranged discussing drivers, barriers and enablers for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation, with almost 60 participants from the research and user partners. The workshop has been supplemented with literature studies on driving forces, previous similar projects and other countries' roadmaps. The driving forces have been furthered structured into megatrends, external factors and internal grid related factors, as shown in the figure.
Mini scenarios for the future distribution system
The third workshop was arranged in August, with group discussions on mini scenarios. A mini scenario is a probable event, development or action of significance for the future electricity distribution. It is related to one or more driving forces. This work resulted in 113 mini scenarios later adapted into 60 mini scenarios. Examples of mini scenarios:
The consumer is self-contained
The consumer (prosumer) produces most of its electricity use, with the grid as backup. The grid companies have poor foundation for utility. The grid is poorly utilised as it's only function is as backup.
Good incentives for investments in fault current sensors and remotely controlled disconnectors lead to an automated distribution grid. Grid faults leading to interruptions, are automatically isolated. Reduced interruption costs.
Battery in every home
Power based tariffs give incentives for levelling out the power use. Batteries reduce the maximum load. Seen from the grid, the consumer has a uniform consumption.
The next step is based on the mini scenarios to develop a credible set of visions and scenarios for the future flexible and intelligent distribution system in Norway.