The objective of WP6 is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packages in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. WP6 will also develop guidelines and recommendations for the transition to the flexible, robust, and cost-efficient electricity distribution system of 2030-2040, by integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.

The expected impact is twofold: 1) a structured multidisciplinary research, providing results that are robust to external requirements and opportunities for the future distribution system, and 2) that these strategies and recommendations will be used by the electricity industry to update their local strategies thus enabling the transition to happen.

  • Drivers, barriers and enablers for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation
  • Scenarios for the future flexible and intelligent distribution system in Norway
  • Transition pathways and guidelines

Results 2019

We are developing a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packagesin CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. We will also develop guidelines and recommendations for the transition to the flexible, robust, and cost-efficient electricity distribution system of 2030-2040, by integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.

By the end of CINELDI, our structured, multidisciplinary research will provide robust results for external requirements and opportunities for the future distribution system. These strategies and recommendations will be used by the electricity industry to update their local strategies, enabling the transition.

Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation

The future grid of 2030-2040 will be a complex system-of-systems, incorporating various intelligent devices and technologies. On the cyber-physical electricity distribution system level, the interactions between various technological, economic, organisational, and human factors add complexity that needs to be addressed in a holistic and coordinated way in order to support system innovation and development.

We define system innovation as a co-evolution of system-level technical, social, economic and regulatory changes. The main driving forces for the distribution system innovation have been identified, with more than 100 mini scenarios developed for the electricity distribution system in Norway. A mini scenario is a probable event, development or action of significance for the future electricity distribution system.

This work on scenarios was performed as a foresight process through workshops and meetings gathering all partners in CINELDI, supported with literature surveys and further studies. The foresight process is about thinking, debating and shaping the future. Apart from describing driving forces for implementing a smart distribution grid (See page 16 for more information about driving forces) and developing mini scenarios, four possible main scenarios for the future distribution system have been developed. This work relates to a system of coordinates, where the horizontal axis describes the grid customers and the vertical axis describes the grid itself.

The endpoints of the horizontal axis define the passive and the active grid customers, respectively. Similarly, the endpoints of the grid axis define the analogous grid and the digitalized grid, respectively. The main scenarios arise from the interaction between the customer- and grid axes. Various driving forces (mega- trends, external- and grid related forces) will push the development in different directions.

The transition to the future flexible, intelligent, cost-efficient and robust distribution grid, requires each industry (grid companies, TSOs, technology providers and other stakeholders ) to properly prepare for the future. Therefore we conducted a survey among CINELDI-partners to gain insight into how the results on driving forces and scenarios have been used already and how the partners plan to use the results in the future.

The results of the survey are shown below. The majority of the respondents will use the results to inform their research and development strategy, with half planning to use them to develop expertise, a demonstration/ pilot strategy, and their overall company strategy. We are very pleased with these results. They show our work in CINELDI has direct value for our user partners, and that grid companies are preparing for the necessary transition to the smart grid.

 

Results 2018

Foresight process developing scenarios

The future grid anno 2030-2040 will be a complex system-of-systems, incorporating various intelligent devices and technologies. On the cyber-physical electricity distribution system level, the interactions between various technological, economic, organisational, and human factors add complexity that needs to be addressed in a holistic and coordinated way in order to support the system innovation. WP6 seeks to identify the main drivers, barriers and enablers for this system innovation and based on this, develop a set of credible scenarios for the electricity distribution system in Norway. System innovation is here defined as a co-evolution of system-level technical, social and regulatory changes.

This work is performed as a foresight process through workshops and meetings gathering all partners in CINELDI, supported with literature surveys and further studies. Four workshops have been arranged during 2016-2018, performing stakeholder analysis, identifying drivers, barriers and enablers, developing mini scenarios and discussing the direction of the main scenarios. The foresight process and the implemented steps so far are illustrated in the figure. 

In the two first steps of the foresight process, the driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation are identified and structured, and sorted into the three levels: megatrends, external driving forces and grid related driving forces.

Repository of mini scenarios for the future distribution system

The driving forces further give the foundation for developing scenarios or alternative futures. The first step is to develop mini scenarios. A mini scenario is a probable event, development or action of significance for the future electricity distribution system. It is related to one or more driving forces.

In total, 109 mini scenarios are developed and collected in a repository. Examples of mini scenarios and their possible impact on the grid performance, are given below. The impact is shown with a description and a colour code:

Rød

 The mini scenario has a negative impact on the grid performance

Yellow

 The impact on the grid performance is uncertain and can be both positive and / or negative

Green

 The mini scenario has a positive impact on the grid performance

White

The mini scenario has no direct impact on the grid performance

"From peak power to stable loads"

Electrification of transport causes power challenges to the grid due to simultaneous fast charging.
The ferry companies make large investments in on-shore battery packages with extra capacity.
This results in stable load from the grid side, and possibilities for the ferry companies to provide
flexibility / grid support in high load periods and fault situations.

Impact on grid performance
Security of supply

Batteries are utilised to increase the security of supply

Economy

Decreased CAPEX (defer investments)

Cyber security -
Safety

It may be challenging to know if the grid is energised or not when batteries can
feed the grid. This must be solved to ensure personnel safety.

"Microgrids for all"

Many neighbourhoods are organised as microgrids. With heat pumps and distributed generation, the power
and energy demand in the connection point is reduced. Several microgrids choose to go off-line, and the
number of customers connected to the distribution grid is decreasing.

Impact on grid performance
Security of supply

End-users may experience decreasing security of supply due to off-grid solutions

Economy

Uncertain revenue for the grid company

Cyber security

Local solutions (+), but more automation (-)

Safety

Must be handled by the local community itself

   

A small survey was performed among DSOs to gain insight into how they prepare for the uncertain future and how they may utilise the results from the foresight process. Some of the DSOs have already taken results from this foresight process in use in their strategic processes. To prepare for the uncertain future the DSOs focus on the following:

   • Recruitment and competence building, for instance in data science 
   • Build new knowledge through new demonstration/ pilot projects
   • Prepare for better utilisation of existing and new data
   • Utilise the new knowledge to improve the work processes in grid management.

This work is described in a scientific paper "Driving forces for intelligent distribution system innovation – results from a foresight process", to be presented at CIRED 2019 in June in Madrid.

Results 2017

Smart grid scenarios and transition strategies (WP6)
The objective of WP6 is to develop a credible set of Smart Grid visions and scenarios as input to the other work packages in CINELDI, and as a basis for fostering new ideas and innovation. WP6 will also develop guidelines and recommendations for the transition to the flexible, robust, and cost-efficient electricity distribution system of 2030 – 2040, by integrating the results and findings from the other work packages into a holistic strategy.

The expected impact is a structured multidisciplinary research, providing results that are robust to external requirements and opportunities for the future distribution system. WP6 will establish a common basis for the various work packages regarding the future distribution grid, while providing direction for research in CINELDI.

Foresight process developing scenarios
The future grid anno 2030-2040 will be a complex system-of-systems, incorporating various intelligent devices and technologies. On the cyber-physical electricity distribution system level, the interactions between various technological, economic, organisational, and human factors add complexity that needs to be addressed in a holistic and coordinated way in order to support the system innovation. WP6 seeks to identify the main drivers, barriers and enablers for this system innovation and based on this, develops a set of credible scenarios for the electricity distribution system in Norway.

The work on scenarios is performed as a foresight process through workshops and meetings gathering all partners in CINELDI, supported with literature surveys and further studies. In the first workshop that was arranged during kick-off of CINELDI in fall 2016, a stakeholder analysis was performed.

Driving forces for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation
In May 2017, a workshop was arranged discussing drivers, barriers and enablers for intelligent electricity distribution system innovation, with almost 60 participants from the research and user partners. The workshop has been supplemented with literature studies on driving forces, previous similar projects and other countries' roadmaps. The driving forces have been furthered structured into megatrends, external factors and internal grid related factors, as shown in the figure.

Driving forces structured into megatrends, external factors and internal grid related factors
Driving forces structured into megatrends, external factors and internal grid related factors

Mini scenarios for the future distribution system
The third workshop was arranged in August, with group discussions on mini scenarios. A mini scenario is a probable event, development or action of significance for the future electricity distribution. It is related to one or more driving forces. This work resulted in 113 mini scenarios later adapted into 60 mini scenarios. Examples of mini scenarios:

The consumer is self-contained
The consumer (prosumer) produces most of its electricity use, with the grid as backup. The grid companies have poor foundation for utility. The grid is poorly utilised as it's only function is as backup.

Self-healing grid
Good incentives for investments in fault current sensors and remotely controlled disconnectors lead to an automated distribution grid. Grid faults leading to interruptions, are automatically isolated. Reduced interruption costs.

Battery in every home
Power based tariffs give incentives for levelling out the power use. Batteries reduce the maximum load. Seen from the grid, the consumer has a uniform consumption.
The next step is based on the mini scenarios to develop a credible set of visions and scenarios for the future flexible and intelligent distribution system in Norway.

Contact

Gerd Kjølle

Chief Scientist
906 72 035
Name
Gerd Kjølle
Title
Chief Scientist
Phone
906 72 035
Department
Energy Systems
Office
Trondheim
Company
SINTEF Energi AS