A risk-based approach to distribution network planning is desirable in the future. That implies making decisions to minimize or maintain the probability that the power demand will exceed the capacity, and to decide if the potential consequences are acceptable or not.

To improve the planning of the network, we are therefore increasing the knowledge about the dynamics and variation in power in the distribution network, together with CINELDI-partner Glitre Nett.

Today, planning uses empirical calculation bases for power, i.e. Velanders formula or time-of-use. These methods work reasonably well but can in some cases lead to off-target conclusions.

A stochastic methodology has been investigated and tested. Results this far show that a stochastic approach gives better insight in the nature of power variations and is better suited for modelling the actual load caused by the individual consumers. The model also makes it possible for managers and network planers to make a conscious choice of the level of confidence to be used for dimensioning.

Further, variants of the method will be investigated and compared to Velander/time-of use to check if a stochastic approach can provide improved information for network planning.

Contact person:

• , Glitre Nett