Challenge and objective

  • Quantify the role of electric vehicles in deep decarbonization pathways.
  • Illustrate implications of long-term electrification targets for near-term EV policy.
  • Review electric vehicle economics, technology, and policy.

Work performed

  • Meta-analysis of deep decarbonization pathways for 2C and 1.5C.
  • Stock-flow simulation modelling of fleet turnover Literature review of EV economics, technology and policy.

Significant results

  • The fleet share of zero-emission vehicles ranges between 22% and 90% (median of 62%) in 2 °C scenarios and between 67% and 100% (median of 96%) in 1.5 °C scenarios.
  • Reaching 1.5C requires that policy makers both increase EV sales and accelerate the retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles.

Impact for distribution system innovation

  • System planners can better understand the role of EVs in the clean energy transition.
Electric Vehicle Adoption Dynamics on the Road to Deep Decarbonization

Magnus Korpås

WP3 Lead
+47 970 42 009
Magnus Korpås
WP3 Lead


Reference in CINELDI