Challenge and objective

  • Find the existing methods for baseline load estimation for activated flexibility calculation.

Work performed

  • 8 Different baseline estimation methods namely:
    1. Window before 
    2. Window before and after 
    3. Historical or Averaging (also called X of Y) 
    4. Calculated : Interpolation, Regression 
    5. Machine learning 
    6. Control group 
    7. Prognosis 
    8. Combinations/other are identified

Significant results

  • The 4 necessary characteristics to qualify baseline estimation method are identified:
    1. Transparency and simplicity
    2. Inclusive use of available flexibility 
    3. Immune to manipulation
    4. Compatibility with continuous control

Impact for distribution system innovation

  • Quantification and evaluation of flexibility for DSO services.
Baseline estimation methods – a literature review


Magnus Korpås

WP3 Lead
+47 970 42 009
Magnus Korpås
WP3 Lead


Reference in CINELDI

  • V. Lakshmanan: "Baseline estimation methods – a literature review", CINELDI-memo, 2022.