To main content

Wind dependent failure rates for overhead transmission lines using reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme

Wind dependent failure rates for overhead transmission lines using reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme

Category
Part of a book/report
Abstract
The main task of this paper is to calculate wind dependent failure rates for overhead transmission lines using reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme. The availability of finely meshed hourly reanalysis time series for wind speed allows us to construct individual fragility curves for each transmission line by considering the failure probability of each of its segments as a function of weather exposure where both segment length and the intensity of wind has been included. Using historical failure data together with a Bayesian updating scheme we are able to construct historical hourly time series for the probability of transmission line failure. These time series form the basis of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables us to capture the significant increase in probability of the occurrence of two or more simultaneous failures associated with severe storms.
Client
  • Norges forskningsråd / 255226
Language
English
Author(s)
Affiliation
  • Statnett
  • SINTEF Energy Research / Energisystemer
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Year
2016
Publisher
IEEE Press
Book
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2016
ISBN
978-1-5090-1970-0