Sammendrag
Future power production in Europe is expected to include large shares of variable wind and solar power production. Norway, with approximately half of the hydropower reservoir capacity in Europe, can contribute to balance the variability. The aim of this paper is to assess how such a role may impact the Norwegian hydropower system in terms of production pattern of the plants, changes in reservoir level and water values. The study uses a stochastic optimization and simulation model and analyses an eHighway2050 scenario combined with increases in the hydropower production capacities in Norway. The capacity increases from ca. 31 GW in the present system to 42 and 50 GW respectively. The study uses 75 years with stochastic wind, solar radiation, temperature and inflow data. The results show that the hydropower system is able to partly balance the variable production and significantly reduce the power prices for the analyzed case. The paper shows that some of the power plants utilize their increased capacity, while other plants do not due to hydrological constraints and model limitations. The paper discusses how the modelling can be further improved in order to quantify more of the potential impacts on the future power system