Sammendrag
The objective of this study is to analyze the Nordic power market under changing climate conditions. A different climate affects the power market mainly through changes in inflow and temperatures. We use the EMPS-model to simulate the 2020-system, using expected values for demand, supply and transmission. The reference climate scenario is based on observed climatic variables from the period 1961 to 1990. The alternative climate scenarios are for the period 2021 – 2050, and are based on the climate models “met.no-HIRHAM-HadCM3-A1B” and “DMI-HIRHAM-Echam5-A1B”. In the two future climate scenarios, the simulated hydropower production increases by approximately 10 % for the whole NordPool area compared to the reference climate. The simulated reservoir level has less variation over the year, mainly because of larger inflow during the winter. The probability of energy shortage is reduced, while the average spillage from reservoirs is increased. Average prices for electricity are reduced for every week.